August 2010 Deep Insights

Guesstimates used as measurements are founded in subjectivity; framed through anecdotal evidence filtered by individual biases. They lead to excuses, long overdrawn meetings, continued misguided effort and always add additional burdens for everyone to carry.

The uses of guesstimates are a signal for organizations to dissect the issue at hand until hard objective measurements become visible. The process of dissection requires critical path definition and analysis, compartmentalization of the critical path value added activities, a division of the parts within each compartment, and the resolve of participants not to accept anecdotal analysis. Each compartment must be studied to determine its exact contribution to the whole and where its order falls on the critical path. When order is established, individual parts within a compartment can be more closely inspected to understand their contribution to the compartments participation in the whole. Compartment contributions must lead to successfully transferring finished quality products to the critical path for next steps. With dissection, statistical data can be collected building measurements to alert everyone that a crisis is brewing. It is not enough to know when a crisis occurs, measurements should forecast and sound an alarm, creating an environment, not of solving crisis but of forestalling.

Guesstimates will never allow forestalling activities to occur. Organizations must create a culture of forestalling activities with measurements that will forecast crisis, not report a historical event, their future success is at stake.